Tourists, probably mistaking Chen for Mao-Tse Tung, capture the old Communist’s likeness, against the backdrop of Pudong, the brash city of sky-scrapers across the Huangpu river.
What would Chen and Mao make of the new China? A sense of betrayal perhaps, given that one of their closest comrades, Deng Xiaoping rejected Maoist doctrine to embrace the market economy and transform China, perhaps the most significant event of the entire 20th century. Despite the many breaks with China’s 5,000 civilization by the Communists, there was one constant with the preceding imperial Qing dynasty – namely a rejection of Western culture in an effort to protect China’s uniqueness.
Yet the policy of splendid isolation ushered in the “century of humiliation” at the hands of the Western powers and Japan.
Mao would surely concede grudging respect for the achievements of the Chinese people in their enthusiastic conversion to capitalism. It has funded a massive military build up that has given China the firepower to project its influence far beyond its shores for the first time in the modern era — military spending has risen from $17-billion in 2001 to an estimated $150-billion in 2009.
China’s resurgence is a matter of national pride — a sense that the country is resuming its rightful place as the Middle Kingdom around which all other nations revolve.
New leader Xi Jinping has already shown his nationalist credentials by calling for a “renaissance” of the Chinese nation.
Sovereignty and territorial integrity have become a major force in Chinese public discourse and that is making the neighbours nervous — not least Shinzo Abe, the new Japanese prime minister. He has already proposed his country’s first defence budget increase in 11 years and used his inaugural overseas trip since to convince other Asian nations such as Vietnam and Thailand to join his bid to contain China.
The territorial dispute between the two Asian giants over the uninhabited Diaoyu Islands (known as the Senkakus by the Japanese) is regarded as “worrisome” by Western diplomats, who believe the prospect of war between the world’s second- and third-biggest economies is very real.
The Japanese scrambled fighter aircraft recently, after Chinese planes penetrated what Japan claims as its airspace.
“There is the potential for an incident. It’s a question of face. The new Japanese Prime Minister Abe has hawks in his Cabinet and he doesn’t want to back down. The Chinese new leadership doesn’t want to back down, so I don’t see how either of them can back off at this stage,” said one senior diplomat in Beijing.
This week, Mr. Abe raised the possibility of a summit with the Chinese to cool tensions, but on the same day Mr. Xi promised never to compromise on sovereignty issues.
Even the prospect of damaging a $345-billion trading relationship doesn’t seem to have calmed sentiment.
There is a sense of unfinished business in much of the public commentary, amid calls by some retired officers for a “short, sharp war.”
“China is no longer the country of the 1930s, when the Japanese let loose a reign of terror,” concluded Li Qingsi, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University, in the China Daily, the country’s main state-run English newspaper.
Yang Yi, a navy rear admiral, penned an even more bellicose editorial in the same newspaper, saying that China will not allow itself to be “humiliated and provoked” over the Diaoyus. “China never fires the first shot but it will resolutely fight back if its national interests are violated. Should a violent confrontation occur between China and Japan, it will not only harm the interests of both countries, it will also drag the United States into the abyss of war,” he wrote.
Hillary Clinton, in her final days as U.S. secretary of state, hardly soothed the situation when she appeared alongside visiting Japanese foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, and said America opposes any action that would undermine Japan’s administration of the islands. Reaction in Beijing was apoplectic, as foreign ministry officials accused Ms. Clinton of making the situation more unstable by appearing to back Japan.
Concerns about China’s muscle-flexing extend beyond one island dispute. China and the Philippines had a stand-off at a shoal west of the main Philippine island of Luzon last year and Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia were all upset about a new China passport that claims ownership of the entire South China Sea. An upcoming official map of China’s full territory, that increases the number of disputed areas from 29 to 130, is sure to inflame the situation further still.
So does China’s desire to throw its weight around the neighbourhood, make military conflict inevitable? There is certainly genuine concern among China watchers, as the country struggles to find its place in the world. “China reminds me of a teenage 16-year-old boy who has suddenly discovered he is very powerful but has never tested his strength. They seem to want to get into a fight,” said one diplomat.
China has never acquired overseas colonies and has shown little interest in what is beyond its shores. Foreign affairs are viewed through a narrow lens — how do they affect China’s own governance, sovereignty and territorial integrity. That’s why the Diaoyu crisis has so much potential to blow up — the islands are seen as an intrinsic part of Chinese territory. And, while “hate” is a strong word, Chinese friends told me the majority of people they know hate the Japanese and would be prepared to send their only child to war to fight them.
There is a feeling that things will get much hotter before they cool down, in part because China has a history of dialling up the heat.
As Henry Kissinger notes in his book On China, Chinese diplomats believe in deterrence in the form of pre-emption. “Chinese planners seek to undermine the enemy’s confidence and allow China to reclaim the psychological, if not material, upper hand,” he wrote, citing Mao’s attack on India in 1962, after which he retreated to the previous line of control, and Deng’s punitive strike on Vietnam in 1979, which was also followed by a retreat.
Japanese attempts to encircle China in what Mr. Abe calls “an arc of freedom and prosperity” are particularly upsetting for the Chinese. Having hostile neighbours on its periphery provoked China to war in Korea in the 1950s and Vietnam in the late 1970s.
Yet China watchers stress that the strategy of offensive deterrence does not necessarily mean a reckless rush to war. “Rarely do Chinese statesmen risk the outcome of a conflict on a single all or nothing clash. Elaborate multi-year manoeuvres are closer to their style,” writes Dr. Kissinger. “The Chinese ideal stressed subtlety, indirection and the patient accumulation of advantage.”
Mao exemplified this patience in his stance on Taiwan. “I say we can do without Taiwan for the time being and let it come after one hundred years. Do not take matters in this world so rapidly. Why is there a need to be in such great haste?” he told Dr. Kissinger.
Deng also urged patience and caution in a series of maxims he left for his successors. “Observe carefully; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.”
This sounds like a warning to future leaders not to be too assertive or aggressive.
On some files, it looks like the new leadership is listening. Xi Jinping has already signalled his willingness to work with the international community, even in his own backyard. Beijing supported a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning North Korea’s rocket launch in December, a resolution that expanded sanctions.
Peter Harder, president of the Canada China Business Council and a former deputy minister of foreign affairs, says China is showing greater self-confidence about its place in the global power structure. But he said the Chinese are very aware about the inter-dependence of the global economy. “They’re not going to do something stupid,” he said.
As Chen gazes out over the Huangpu, the codependent nature of a world tightly enmeshed is apparent. Barges laden with building materials pass with metronomic regularity; containers loaded with parts for everything from iPads to automobiles shuttle back and forth on supply chains between China and Japan; the Bund is thronged with tourists from other Asian countries, including, although fewer than in previous years, from Japan.
It is clear China has a stake in keeping the peace. The question is whether that reality cools the blood of a resurgent nation that seems intent on testing its strength sooner or later.
Original Article
Source: fullcomment.nationalpost.com
Author: John Ivison
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