This is all contingent on promoting a prospective successor not named Jason Kenney to the coveted finance portfolio – someone with the chops to do the job and the potential to keep the Conservatives competitive in the post-Harper era. Whenever that might begin.
Only two names fit that job description: Peter MacKay or, even better, Jim Prentice. Of course, such a move would rip through the nation’s capital like a dose of salts, unleashing a screech of leadership speculation and endless bar gossip.
Which, in a town like Ottawa, is about as fun as fun gets.
Conservative insiders and a large portion of the Parliamentary Press Gallery will dismiss the notion as preposterous. They will rightly point out that neither Prentice nor MacKay is greeted by Harper with a surplus of warmth. And with equal correctness they’ll remind us that both men arise from the party’s Progressive Conservative tradition, a branch of the family tree that the more muscular Reforministas regard with suspicion and even derision.
The list of objections continues. MacKay has never held an economic portfolio, he’s recently been enmeshed in the F-35 procurement debacle and is sometimes suspected of being light on his brief – an absolute no-go for the serious stuff of finance. Still, he is able, experienced and the closest thing the Conservatives have to a sex symbol, a not unimportant consideration in the looming era of Justin Tru-Dreamy.
For his part, Prentice is happily ensconced on Bay Street, making money, expanding his circle of influence and polishing his credentials with the occasional policy intervention. Dead smart and with the bluest of blood, he also fits the profile of finance minister like he was sent from central casting. But with no obvious seat available for his re-entry to Parliament, such a sudden return to active politics would be ranked by most as a long shot.
Still, Harper could make either appointment happen if he chose to do so. And, there are good reasons he might opt to make exactly that choice. Not the least of which is the preservation of the modern Conservative party.
As we know, this prime minister is a remarkably disciplined tactician. He concentrates his energies on well reasoned gradualism. Building step-by-step. In that respect, there is nothing he treasures more than the successful voter coalition he has scratched from the dry sands of western alienation and shaped into a fertile national force. It is the means by which he creates permanence to his political career. The tool that he hopes will forever eliminate Liberal hegemony. And the mechanism by which he dreams of leaving the nation with lasting change.
But his project faces perils. Nearing his fifth election as leader and fourth as prime minister, Harper now confronts three very dangerous opponents: Thomas Mulcair, Justin Trudeau and Father Time. He also knows that the true measure of his success will be the ability of the Conservative party to one day win without him.
He’s built an impressive political coalition. But is it sustainable? Is it self-perpetuating?
Complicating this evaluation is Kenney, the man who appears most likely to one day inherit Harper’s position atop this machine. In fact, Kenney is so far ahead in the unofficial leadership contest that it is difficult at this point to see anyone else offering a truly competitive challenge, a prospect that Harper cannot regard as prudent.
The unvarnished truth is that Kenney is a big problem for the Conservatives. And Harper is too smart to not know it. The immigration minister has won deserved accolades as an indefatigable missionary for his party among Canada’s multicultural communities. He works endlessly. Networks constantly. He is a hero to the hard-core base of his party and an astonishingly committed soldier for all causes Conservative. He’s also a pretty likable guy.
But, as leader, Kenney would put the Conservatives at enormous electoral risk. Whereas Harper has been able to slowly, persistently raise the core Conservative vote to roughly 30 per cent, Kenney would almost certainly take it in the opposite direction. His uncompromising brand of Conservatism gets loud cheers among the party rank and file. But it would struggle to find an audience among swing and undecided voters who might well see him in the mould of Tea Party leaders to the south.
Like Paul Ryan or Eric Cantor, Kenney frequently comes off as an energetic but overly insistent champion of libertarian ideals. It is easy to imagine him falling victim to the classic trap of winning his party only to lose the country. If Harper shares these doubts that Kenney can sustain the Conservative movement, he has only a few options to affect the current dynamic. He may choose to remain in office as long as possible. Or pray that Brad Wall’s French improves.
But these are passive strategies, and Harper has not shown himself to be a passive strategist. Flaherty’s departure, on the other hand, would provide the prime minister with a big new trump card to play. Elevating a contender such as Prentice or MacKay to finance minister would hit the Conservative party like a rocket and instantly radiate across the membership. Overnight, Kenney would face a serious counterweight.
That Harper may not prefer either Prentice or MacKay is beside the point. His self-interest doesn’t include watching favoured disciples fail. It’s invested in watching — and even grooming — whomever can win take his coalition forward and win.
Flaherty can start this ball rolling with his retirement. Of course, if he opts to stay, Harper will have to kick his Kenney problem down the road. And that might be an even trickier challenge than finding a new minister of finance.
Original Article
Source: canada.com
Author: Scott Reid
No comments:
Post a Comment