The 2013 drought season is off to a worse start than in 2012 or 2011. It’s a good indicator, based on historical records, that the entire year will be drier than last year, even if spring and summer rainfall and temperatures remain the same, says scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If rainfall decreases and temperatures rise, as climatologists are predicting will happen this year, the drought could be even more severe.
The federal researchers also say there is less than a 20 per cent chance the drought will end in the next six months.
“There were certainly pockets of drought as we went into spring last year, but overall, the situation was much better than it is now,” said Tom Karl, a climatologist and director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.
Bleak outlook
In February, 54.2 per cent of the contiguous United States experienced drought conditions, compared with 39 per cent at the same time last year. Large swaths of South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska and Montana are now battling severe and extreme drought as farmers get ready to plant their spring crops.
The outlooks for rainfall and temperature are similarly bleak.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently forecast that Texas, Oklahoma and the Pacific Northwest will likely get less rainfall in 2013 than in 2012, and that the entire nation will experience a warmer summer than last year.
Predicting drought
NOAA has worked for years to find ways to predict when a drought will start and how long it will last. If climatologists had known the Dust Bowl would stretch for nine years or that the widespread 1950s drought would last for five, farmers might have switched their agricultural practices, planted different crops or used the remaining water more carefully.
By looking back at the environmental factors that helped ease or end historic droughts, researchers also have formed an idea of the weather conditions needed to stop a drought, said climatologist Mike Brewer. But those predictions aren’t accurate beyond a six-month time frame, because historical droughts can only tell them so much.
“Every drought has a different flavour,” Brewer said. “They form in different conditions and are controlled by different factors.”
Despite recent strides in drought predictions, Brewer and Karl said scientists still can’t determine whether we are in the climax or at the tail end of a drought — or if we’ve been thrust into a multi-decade drought — until years after rainfall has increased and temperatures have subsided.
Agricultural impact
If patterns from previous droughts are, in fact, being repeated now, the 2013 drought has the potential to seriously damage an already wounded agricultural system.
Last year marked the most severe and extensive drought in at least 25 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It was also the hottest year on record for the United States. By September 2012, 50 per cent of the crops being harvested were in poor or very poor condition.
Last year’s damaged harvest is expected to raise food prices by as much as 4 per cent in 2013, particularly products like beef, which suffered from a lack of available cattle feed and viable foraging options. Overall, the 2012 drought cost an estimated $150 billion in damage, as well as an estimated 0.5 to 1 per cent drop in the U.S. gross domestic product.
Help for farmers
The NOAA scientists hope their prediction that this year’s drought season is starting off worse than last year’s — and that it will last at least another six months — can help farmers make better decisions about what to plant.
But Bob Young, the chief economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, the nation’s largest farm organization, said that while the heads-up may influence some crop decisions, most farmers probably won’t pay attention to the scientific findings.
“They know what is going on in their own dirt,” Young said. “They tend to watch their own area specifically. Some might choose more soybean than corn since it is more drought tolerant, but overall, I don’t think it will change things much.”
Original Article
Source: thestar.com
Author: Katherine Bagley
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