The document, sent by Oliver’s deputy minister Serge Dupont and released through access to information legislation, highlighted some benefits throughout the economy of private sector oilsands development, which were outlined in a report from the Conference Board of Canada from last October.
Like some other recent studies, the Conference Board report analyzed those benefits, estimating $364 billion in oilsands investments until 2035, creating an average of about 133,000 jobs per year related to the extraction of heavy oil from Western Canada’s natural bitumen deposits.
It noted that transportation or pipeline capacity could influence the economics of the oilsands industry and its ability to get its product to markets.
But on top of these points, frequently mentioned by representatives from Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government and oil companies, the memo to Oliver also highlighted a section of the Conference Board report that said demand for fossil fuels and Canadian resources could drop if countries attempt to prevent the planet’s atmosphere from warming by more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
This temperature threshold is a goal set out in recent international climate change negotiations, based on scientific and economic studies, to prevent irreversible damage to the planet’s ecosystems and economy. Countries have not reached a consensus on a legally binding deal to achieve the target.
“The Conference Board analysis hinges on global oil prices and demand rising steadily to 2035,” said the memo, dated Oct. 26, 2012 and signed by Dupont. “If, for example, new supply sources outpace demand, or if the global energy mix changes drastically in response to global climate change initiatives, then the benefits from oilsands investments may be considerably less.”
Oliver told Postmedia News in an email that the memo highlights the critical importance of diversifying Canada’s markets to promote growth. He also said the International Energy Agency projects that, even under the most stringent climate change scenario, 63 per cent of global energy needs will still be met by fossil fuels in 25 years and require “every drop” of growing production from Canada’s oilsands.
Earlier this week, Oliver said that the Harper government is continuing to “work aggressively” to introduce new environmental protections while promoting energy infrastructure that is “critical to Canadian jobs and long-term economic prosperity.”
Meantime, the Conference Board report’s lead author said the research isn’t suggesting that the oilsands industry would be harmed in a world that is addressing global warming.
Michael Burt, the director of the industrial economic trends group at the Conference Board, said the future depends on a variety of factors such as technological innovation and production levels from major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia.
“There may be a technological breakthrough that alters the economics of the industry,” said Burt, in an interview on Friday.
“Even in a world where demand is less, it’s all about where the supply to meet that demand is going to come from.”
He also said that many significant unexpected changes in the past decade have influenced economic projections and impacts, including the sharp rise in the global market price for oil, as well as the recognition that Canada’s bitumen deposits in Alberta were recoverable and among the world’s largest reserves of oil.
Canada is the only country in the world to accept legally-binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, then formally withdraw from the international agreement.
But the report said that a combination of emerging global policies, including pricing schemes or taxes on pollution, an elimination of public subsidies for fossil fuels and new support for clean technology, would all factor in to projections for the oilsands industry. These factors could cause global oil consumption to peak in less than seven years, eventually dropping to below current levels, the report said.
“With a concerted global effort to lower emissions, the global energy mix changes drastically relative to today,” said the report, referring to an analysis by the International Energy Agency, a partnership of governments from around the world.
“These policies result in a dramatic reduction in coal use, but oil demand is also considerably weaker than in the baseline analysis laid out above.”
The report said the impacts on oilsands investment would, as a result, be “clearly negative,” but it also noted that political resistance from governments could help slow down climate change negotiations and protect the oilsands industry.
“This is in part due to the current environment where governments worldwide find themselves faced with high levels of sovereign debt, stagnant revenues, and weak economic growth.”
Original Article
Source: canada.com
Author: Mike De Souza
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