With Liberal candidate Yvonne Jones increasing the Liberal vote count by nearly 40 per cent from the 2011 federal election results in the Labrador riding, Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal MP Gerry Byrne said with the investment Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) made in former Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Peter Penashue’s campaign, the Prime Minister lost more than anyone as the scale of the results became clear.
“Stephen Harper had huge skin in that game,” said Mr. Byrne, a longtime Liberal campaign strategist in the province before his first election to the House of Commons in 1996. “They didn’t even have a nomination contest.”
Some 12,059 of the 20,251 registered voters cast ballots on Monday night in Labrador on Monday night, but the significance of the outcome for Mr. Harper, new Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) could be greater than pundits outside the province realize, comments from Ekos pollster Frank Graves, Liberal commentator Greg MacEachern and Mr. Byrne suggest.
Longtime Newfoundland and Labrador provincial House of Assembly representative Yvonne Jones, a former leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals, increased the Liberal share of the vote by 1,637, to 48.2 per cent of valid votes cast compared to 39 per cent in the 2011 federal election.
Mr. Penashue, failing in a bid for re-election after resigning his Cabinet post and Commons seat in a storm of controversy over ineligible campaign expenses, overspending, and contributions from 2011, dropped more than 300 votes, to 3,922 votes or 32.5 per cent of the vote, despite an overall increase in the voter participation rate to 59.6 per cent, unheard of for any recent federal byelection in Canada.
Ms. Jones won 5,814 votes and 48.2 per cent of the vote, well above the 4,177 Liberal votes in 2011, when the incumbent Liberal, former MP Todd Russell lost to Mr. Penashue by only 79 votes.
Mr. Byrne, Mr. MacEachern and Mr. Graves said the high turnout in Labrador was striking.
Since 1995, Library of Parliament records show, byelection turnouts have only occasionally reached more than 40 per cent and most averaged in the mid-30 percentage range, with several byelection turnouts below 30 per cent.
Although NDP candidate and school teacher Harry Borlase increased the NDP vote by 153 from 2,120 votes in 2011, the NDP share dropped to 18.8 per cent from 19.8 per cent, which Mr. Graves and Mr. Byrne described as a bad omen for Mr. Mulcair, who visited Labrador twice to try to bolster chances for Mr. Morlase. Mr. Byrne said “bucket-loads” of NDP MPs, even from outside Newfoundland and Labrador, also entered the fray.
Mr. MacEachern pointed to unusual developments during the campaign that damaged Mr. Penashue, including his own statement that as the political minister for the province he held back approval for unspecified federal contributions to projects for other areas of Newfoundland and Labrador until getting infrastructure funding approved first for a project in his Labrador electoral district.
As well, Mr. MacEachern said Defence Minister Peter MacKay’s (Central Nova, N.S.) deriding the status of opposition MPs, while stating publicly Mr. Penashue was guaranteed a Cabinet post if he won re-election, was also “odd” considering the time Mr. MacKay had spent in the Commons opposition from 1997 to 2006.
Mr. MacEachern also questioned a claim from Conservative Party spokesman Fred DeLorey that the results were a setback for Mr. Trudeau because Ms. Jones’ did not win the margin of victory some public opinion polls had predicted.
Mr. DeLorey said in a statement released Monday night that majority governments don’t usually win byelections and that the Liberal win wasn’t surprising considering the Liberals have won the Labrador riding in every election in history except for two.
“What is surprising is the collapse of the Liberal support during this byelection. When this byelection was called, the Liberals has a 43-point lead in the polls. Since electing Justin Trudeau as leader and having him personally campaign there, they have dropped 20 points in Labrador. That’s a significant drop in only a few weeks. Labradorians were able to see first-hand house Justin Trudeau is in over his head,” said Mr. DeLorey.
“Fred DeLorey, who I get a real kick out of, tried to spin this as somehow bad for the Liberals. It’s just odd, and I think it really signals there’s been a change in tone and expectations from people,” Mr. MacEachern said.
On the outcome’s significance for Mr. Trudeau, Mr. MacEachern said there is no question the results are positive.
“It’s a great thing to have a byelection win early in any new leader’s mandate,” Mr. MacEachern said. “I’m not going to be one of the Liberals who are projecting this nation-wide as something. I think Yvonne Jones was a very strong candidate and could have won this on her own. I think the increased voter turnout may be attributable to perhaps a new excitement in politics that Justin Trudeau brings. I think it may be tough to project Labrador, nationally, but I would not say you couldn’t project it regionally, I think it does speak to a mood around Atlantic Canada.”
Mr. MacEachern pointed out Conservative MP Mike Allen (Tobique-Mactaquac, N.B.) was one of several Conservative MPs who declined to take part in a Conservative Party attack against Mr. Trudeau through bulk distribution of MP newsletters from the House of Commons, which could have signalled that even in New Brunswick, with eight Conservative MPs, Tories may be seeing signs of change on the ground.
Mr. Byrne said Mr. Harper “upped the ante” in the byelection by designating the Conservative Party’s director of political operations, Jenni Byrne, as the “de facto” campaign manager for Mr. Penashue and sending in Mr. MacKay with the promise of a Cabinet position for Mr. Penashue.
“He upped the ante of this himself, even though he never personally went to Labrador,” Mr. Byrne said.
“Peter MacKay was sent in as the ambassador, or dupe, whichever way you want to put it, to pronounce that, contrary to normal traditions of the Cabinet-making system here in Canada, where nobody but the Prime Minister pronounces who is going into Cabinet, well, Peter MacKay, as deputy leader, announced that Penashue was definitely going into Cabinet,” said Mr. Byrne.
Mr. Graves departed from his normal practice of viewing byelections as little more than an outcome for each race, rather than as entrails with wider significance, and said: “I do think this result is interesting and possibly revealing about broader changes at play.”
Mr. Graves called the turnout “quite remarkable” for a byelection, which he said suggests voters in Labrador were “highly engaged. Second, to so categorically oust a senior incumbent , who came loaded with Cabinet status and plenty of stuff under the tree is interesting ,” Mr. Graves said. “Given the attention paid to this by the parties, it seems to have some symbolic stakes, if only on the morale of the parties themselves.
“To the degree that this mirrors the striking rise in Liberal fortunes since Justin Trudeau’s arrival, it may well be reflective of that momentum,” Mr. Graves said. "By corollary, the resounding defeat of a Cabinet minister at a time when the Harper government is descending to historical lows can hardly be taken as a positive harbinger.”
Original Article
Source: hilltimes.com
Author: TIM NAUMETZ
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