Nixing the toll lanes is the latest demand issued by Ontario Finance Minister … whoops, NDP leader Andrea Horwath, who — despite having had her wish list not only met but exceeded in this budget — continues to press for more concessions in exchange for keeping Wynne’s minority Liberal government in power.
Why is Horwath so confident? A recent poll gives a clue: 53 per cent of Ontario voters don’t want an election. More important, though, the poll has the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives neck-and-neck with 35 per cent each, and the NDP at 25 per cent.
In other words, while Horwath definitely would not win an election right now, Wynne might not either — making her more likely to give the NDP goodies in exchange for avoiding a June vote.
This makes Horwath’s horsetrading all the more obnoxious. She might claim she’s holding out because her 1-800-ANDREA hotline and website got such an ‘overwhelming’ response. But governing by phone and Internet surveys that anyone can stack isn’t leading — it’s lying. If voters really preferred NDP policies, Horwath’s party would be ahead in the professionally-taken opinion polls — which it isn’t. Instead, she wants to force a minority opinion on the majority of the population under the guise of populism.
Horwath also knows the NDP has zero interest in going to the polls when the fight for first place likely will stay between the Liberals and the Tories. Provincial voters also may do what they did federally: try and give one of those parties a majority, to avoid another ‘orange’ budget where the third party holds the government hostage to their demands.
Despite the risks to the NDP, there are only so many occasions when Horwath can cry wolf. It may be an even bigger gamble to let the Liberals stay on, because Wynne is not an unlikeable figure — the longer she remains in the premier’s chair, the more time she has to establish her presence with voters. And threatening to bring down a government, while keeping it alive, makes you look weak: Just ask former federal Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, who supported two Tory budgets during his three years as leader before being trounced in the 2011 election.
Horwath faces the same dilemma. She needs to steal support from the Liberals but probably can’t siphon enough to form government. Instead, by dividing the centre-left vote she risks toppling the Liberals from power and ushering in the PCs — which would mean losing the power position she enjoys propping up a minority Liberal administration.
The only way Horwath could claim victory in such a scenario would be if the NDP succeeded in coming second, ahead of the Liberals. Then she could attempt to replicate the political polarization that the federal Conservatives and NDP enjoyed, squeezing the Liberals in the centre — as long as no provincial version of Justin Trudeau showed up to spoil the party.
So where does this leave the three leaders this week? If Wynne has the courage of her convictions, she won’t give in to Horwath’s latest demand. If Horwath has guts, she will stand her ground and topple the government. As for Tory leader Tim Hudak, he’s on the sidelines warming up his troops, waiting for the chance to take the plunge.
But my bet is it won’t happen. The only HOT stuff will be the summer weather, the NDP will support the Liberal budget, and the Tories will gnash their teeth through barbeque season, chasing the mirage of the election that never comes.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics.ca
Author: Tasha Kheiriddin
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