Tories headed for ‘disaster’ in Labrador byelection, says Forum pollster

The Conservatives have been hurt by their own policies in the traditional Liberal riding of Labrador and are headed for defeat in the May 13 byelection, predicts Forum pollster Lorne Bozinoff.

Two Forum polls conducted in Labrador in April suggest that the Liberals are headed for a landslide victory in the byelection.

An April 3 poll found support for Liberal candidate and former provincial Liberal leader Yvonne Jones at 57 per cent, Mr. Penashue at 20 per cent, and NDP candidate Harry Borlase at 21 per cent. By April 24, Ms. Jones’ support had increased to 60 per cent, with 29 per cent support for Mr. Penashue, and 10 per cent support for Mr. Borlase.

Mr. Penashue was one of a handful of Conservative candidates to break through in traditional Liberal ridings in the last election. He bested Liberal incumbent Todd Russell by 79 votes in 2011. If the Forum polls are accurate, Tory support in the riding has vanished.

Mr. Bozinoff called the numbers “a disaster” for the Conservatives.

“The Liberals are keeping their supporters, but the Tories—they’re only keeping 53 per cent of their supporters, and they’re losing 40 per cent to the Liberals,” he observed. “That’s a huge crossover of former Conservative supporters who are intending now to vote Liberal. It’s almost half their support.”

Mr. Bozinoff identified a number of factors that contributed to the drop in Tory support, including the circumstances surrounding Mr. Penashue’s resignation, the popularity of Ms. Jones and new Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.), and the Tories’ own rightward policies since the last federal election.

“It’s not a natural Conservative riding, it’s a Liberal riding, so it makes it hard for them to win a riding like [that] now because they’ve been tacking to the right for the last two years,” Mr. Bozinoff said. “The law and order agenda, the gun registry—all that stuff has been good stuff for their base, but it then puts these type of ridings kind of out of reach for them.”

The May 13 byelection was triggered when former intergovernmental affairs minister Peter Penashue stepped down on March 14 after revealing that his campaign accepted ineligible donations and exceeded campaign expense limits in the 2011 general election.

While Mr. Penashue has framed his resignation as being “accountable,” some of his comments during the election of incensed his opponents. He has claimed that as a Cabinet minister he delayed improvements to a bridge in Liberal MP Scott Simms’ (Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Nfld.) riding so that he could secure further infrastructure improvements in Labrador.

Mr. Simms called the claims “absurd” and “desperate.”

“He’s saying he delayed projects in Newfoundland—this is the regional minister of the province saying these things. It’s absolutely absurd,” Mr. Simms said. “How can he admit that? If that’s a discussion they had at the Cabinet table then it should have stayed there.”

Mr. Simms said that a Liberal victory on May 13 would be the first win under Mr. Trudeau’s leadership and Ms. Jones would deliver better representation for Labradorians.

“It’s Justin’s first win and it’s going to be a big one. It’s also a big win for Yvonne because she’s someone who has been a good representative for Labrador, and will continue to be on [the federal] stage,” Mr. Simms said.

While NDP leader Tom Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) and Mr. Trudeau have both been in the riding to campaign in support of their respective candidates, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) has not visited Labrador during the byelection campaign to support Mr. Penashue.

Mr. Penashue was unavailable for comment, but Cory Hann, a campaign spokesperson, reiterated the message that Labrador was best represented by a Cabinet minister.

“No one has more at stake than the people of Labrador,” he stated in an email. “We have a great MP in Peter Penashue who has delivered for Labrador by scrapping the long-gun registry, delivering federal support for the Muskrat Falls development, and fighting the opposition’s attacks on the seal hunt.”

While the Forum numbers are particularly bad for NDP candidate Harry Borlase, the candidate told The Hill Times that Labradorians are “warming” to the NDP’s message.

Mr. Borlase said that his campaign message was focused on housing and environmental stewardship—two issues that voters in the riding were particularly concerned with.

“Labrador’s always been either under Liberal representation and then finally Peter Penashue. To be honest, it’s always been kind of a disappointment,” he said.

Original Article
Source: hilltimes.com
Author:  CHRIS PLECASH