“His support is rock solid. He’s absolutely rock solid,” said Bruce Davis. “He’ll be very strong going into the election… The people who hated him before still hate him. The people who love him still love him. I haven’t met a single person who has changed their mind (because of the latest controversy).”
Davis says back in 2010, the Smitherman campaign did focus group testing where they asked voters about previous Ford controversies and political gaffes.
“One woman said – and I’m not suggesting he does this, but this is what she said — ‘If I have to choose between someone who wastes our money and someone who (breaks the law), I’ll choose the person who (breaks the law.)’”
Now, poll results released Saturday would only appear to back Davis’s view to a point.
The Ipsos Reid survey found that 34 per cent of Torontonians said they’d vote to re-elect Ford if an election were held tomorrow.
While that’s a significant amount of support, it’s a nine-point drop from the 43 per cent of poll respondents who said they voted for him in the last election.
(The poll, conducted last week, surveyed 530 people and is considered accurate within five percentage points.)
Meanwhile, as fallout from the crack video scandal continues to rock Toronto city hall, political strategists are already examining what it means for the next election.
Ford has made it clear his name will be on the ballot in 2014. Although, some strategists speculate that even if he runs, he’ll never be able to raise the $1 million needed to mount a competitive campaign.
“Bay Street has abandoned him,” said one centre-right political player who will likely support a non-Ford candidate in the next election. “They’re looking for a new conservative candidate – like a John Tory – to put their money behind.”
But Ford’s former chief of staff and the architect of his 2010 victory, Nick Kouvalis, says money is not a problem. The Fords themselves are wealthy people and his supporters will be invigorated.
“Lots of folks will want to make sure they donate to him in case he wins. And he has a big support base that will donate this time to see him get re-elected,” said Kouvalis.
But can even Ford — whose poll numbers reportedly increased after it was revealed he was charged with impaired driving — overcome the latest controversy?
“Ford has his problems and they’re serious. But I think it’s a bit strange that the Liberal government can waste billions of dollars and it hardly gets anywhere near the ink that this getting,” said Kouvalis. “Olivia Chow is an MP — and bless her heart — but she’s never gone through a tough campaign before and she has a lot of skeletons in her closest that she’ll have to face.”
Before the drug scandal, most at city hall believed that the 2014 field would be a three-way race between Chow, TTC chair Karen Stintz and the incumbent mayor.
But after the Star revealed that two reporters had viewed footage of the mayor appearing to smoke crack cocaine — Ford has said he does not smoke cocaine and that there is no video — political players say the race was blown wide open.
“I think they’ll be a lot of people testing the waters,” said Don Guy, a revered strategist at Queen’s Park, who is considering backing a candidate in Toronto’s municipal race.
“Ultimately, when things start to become more clear in 2014 as to who is in and who is out – I hope it becomes a real contest of visions and plans and ideas as opposed to what people are talking about right now.”
One veteran, who has run several municipal campaigns, said this could be the first time in municipal history that an outsider might have an advantage.
“I think council may be perceived as being dysfunctional now. And they’ll want someone to go in and ‘take care of the kids.’ Whether it’s a (John) Tory or Olivia. I think they’ll have an advantage (over a sitting councillor),” said the individual.
The veteran municipal campaigner said that a little more than 50% of people who vote are in North York and Scarborough. Etobicoke accounts for about 13% and the old City of Toronto is around 25%. The remainder comes from East York and York.
“You can’t win if you get beat in the suburbs.”
In 2010, Ford easily seized the mayoralty over Smitherman and former deputy mayor Joe Pantalone. Ford carried every suburban ward and won 47% of the vote. Smitherman took 36%. Pantalone secured 12%.
Original Article
Source: thestar.com
Author: Robyn Doolittle
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