“They call me harsh. But this Tayyip Erdogan won’t change.”
If he doesn’t, the thrice-elected prime minister of Turkey will likely be undone by the democracy he helped build. The man who tamed the powerful military is on the ropes for being dismissive of the voices from the street. The miraculous economic recovery that he brought about is no longer a buffer against the rising tide of popular anger.
The crisis is as prosaic and as democratically profound as that.
The protests that began May 31 did not start out against him. They were aimed at government policies, principally a shopping mall project on a cherished piece of park land in central Istanbul.
It is he who turned the protests into an anti-Erdogan movement, a crisis of his own making.
He took the protests as a personal affront. How dare the demonstrators question a project approved by his government in his hometown, of which he once was a popular mayor? Opponents were “vandals,” “looters,” “terrorists.” Their Twitter was “the greatest scourge to befall society.” He, the elected leader, was in charge, not they. He would see them at the ballot box in the next election. Until then, they’d better shut up.
He was being more than his usual combative, scrappy self. He was showing himself to be punch-drunk with power.
Dismayed senior members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) told him to back off. He would and he wouldn’t. He would express sympathy for the few “sincere” protestors but lace into the many “provocateurs.” He would concede that police should not have used tear gas but insist he wasn’t going to “kneel before” the protesters and send the wrong signal to police.
Turkish security forces are not known for civility, especially with those challenging their authority. But a prime minister as powerful as Erdogan could have stopped their brutality or initiated an inquiry into it.
With each passing day, he got more provocative, reigniting the protests just as they would be dying down. “Tayyip, resign,” became the most ubiquitous sign. He responded that he would bring “a million of my people” out in the streets.
The protests kept growing, with newer disgruntled groups. All the suppressed resentments of the old established order dethroned by the AKP in 2001 bubbled to the surface.
Rather than being a unifying force, Erdogan exacerbated the divisions.
By Tuesday, he was floating conspiracy theories — the protestors were pawns in a plot by “interest rate lobbyists” to drive up borrowing rates. Or they were being instigated by “foreign powers” out to undermine Turkey. The national spy agency would be investigating.
Wednesday he met an 11-person delegation, ostensibly representing the protestors. Except that the protest organizers said they were not consulted. It was clear that the prime minister was meeting hand-picked mediators.
Along the way, he also shot his reputation as a straight shooter. He denied there had ever been a plan for a shopping mall, only a museum. He said more trees were planned at the site than before.
Turkey is witnessing democracy in action, says Andrew Finkel, an Istanbul-based American journalist and the author of a very useful book, Turkey: What Everyone Needs to Know.
“The strength of public feeling is a reaction to the 10-year rule,” Finkel writes. “After that long in power, governments tend to become arrogant. Erdogan, who in his first two terms had a gift for speaking to the electorate, seems to have developed a tin ear.”
There are already whispers among AKP stalwarts, “what to do with the leader?” He dominates the party but it is not wholly beholden to him, being broad-based and well-organized, far more so than the weak opposition.
Besides the party’s strategic imperatives, many Muslims among his pious base think that in being imperial, he is violating the basic precepts of an Islamic leader, who should be humble and broadly consultative.
The next federal election is two years away. But Erdogan faces a three-term limit, not under federal law but an internal AKP rule, set in 2001 with his backing, to ensure grassroots democracy. He must leave by 2015 — or have the party change the rule and risk public backlash.
There are two elections next year and possibly a referendum.
The AKP may suffer a setback in local elections, especially in Istanbul.
The presidential election will be the first ever for a popularly elected head of state, the incumbent having been elected in 2007 by parliament. Erdogan is believed to be eyeing the post — but only if presidential powers are enhanced. That was to be part of a sweeping package of long overdue constitutional reforms now before a parliamentary committee.
But buoyed by the current unrest, the opposition may block it. Or at least deny the required parliamentary supermajority to avoid a referendum. Such a constitutional referendum would offer voters a chance to cut him down to size.
Original Article
Source: thestar.com
Author: Haroon Siddiqui
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