Brothers Ford stage PC coup

Big winner

Besides Andrea Horwath, whose NDP took two of five by-election races – and continued the party’s momentum from its earlier win in Kitchener-Waterloo – it was Doug Ford. Boing.

That’s right. The mayor’s big brother and councillor for Ward 2 got his fox, Doug Holyday, the new PC MPP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, into the henhouse to stir up more trouble for PC leader Tim Hudak.

Hudak did his best to put on a brave face at the Holyday celebrations at the Brawley on the Queensway August 1. Looked to me like he wanted to get out of there pronto. His wife, former Mike Harris revolutionary Deb Hutton, certainly seemed less than amused by the small talk.

Meanwhile, by the stage, the Ford brothers were happily basking in the spotlight, posing for pictures with party faithful. Another Fordist, conservative fixer John Capobianco, was also in the house, sipping a large glass of wine. There were guffaws all around.

Not that all that talk about giving Hudak the boot merits any real serious thought. Conventional wisdom is he’ll get one more chance to lead the party into the next general election. To pull the plug now would seem rash with a runoff just around the corner, possibly as early as next spring.

But others in PC ranks aren’t so sure. There’s a call to put the question of Hudak’s leadership, which was confirmed after the 2011 runoff, on the floor of the PC party convention next month. At least five caucus members are said to support a review.

Either way it’s bad news for Hudak. Even if he survives, he loses. It won’t stop the questions about his future.

The ducks are lining up nicely for Doug, who didn’t want to take too much credit for Holyday’s win. But who’s he kidding? Does anybody really believe it was Hudak’s idea for Holyday to run in Etobicoke-Lakeshore? The PCs already had a candidate, remember, Steve Ryan, who stepped aside for Holyday due to “health reasons.”

Much ink has been spilled on whether the Etobicoke-Lakeshore win represents a foothold for the PCs in the 416. More like a toehold.

It sets up a run for Ford himself in Etobicoke North. And since another Ford ally, the mayor’s former legal adviser, Pina Martino, is already the PC nominee in Etobicoke Centre, the mayor’s brother has his 416 base from which to launch his not-so-secret coup.

Big loser

That Hudak guy again, but not necessarily because the PCs were only able to win one of the five seats up for grabs. It’s how they lost that’s the real story.

They’re seats the PCs should’ve, could’ve won, held by the Libs only because they’ve been filled over the last decade by prominent cabinet ministers.

The PCs ended up taking a beating. Hudak acknowledged as much in his post-election death watch... I mean, presser. The inescapable conclusions: the PCs didn’t have the ground game to get their vote out, although some contend there was no shortage of volunteers. In which case, the results also say loads about how little faith some among the PC rank and file have in the current leader.

Consider: the PCs had fresh revelations in the ongoing gas plant scandal to stoke anti-Liberal sentiment: namely, emails showing the office of former premier Dalton McGuinty trying to put the squeeze on House Speaker Dave Levac to change his contempt ruling against then energy minister Chris Bentley over the gas plant cancellations.

It’s a worrisome trend for PC party faithful who thought the gas plant scandal would take them to certain victory in 2011. But here they are two years later still trying to find their way out of the political wilderness.

Big question for the NDP

How long is long enough?

The results had barely been made official when attention turned to speculation on when the NDP might force a general election.

Some are predicting one within six months to a year.  But nothing before next spring seems likely, all things being equal.

The NDP has its gauge of public support. If Dippers were unsure about pulling the plug before the summer recess, last Thursday’s results can only embolden them.

The one fly in the ointment: it’s unclear how much of the NDP’s success is due to voters seeing them as an alternative to the Libs, or if they’re just better at getting their folks to vote in by-elections.

The party focused its efforts on two ridings, London West and Windsor-Tecumseh, winning both. In Scarborough-Guildwood, where Adam Giambrone made an unexpectedly good showing, the party’s raw numbers were a little higher than they received in the 2011 general election and a little lower than in 2007.

Big snafu

Will the Libs deliver on the promised subway for Scarborough?

They’re on record as supporting spending an extra billion to convert the previously approved LRT on the Scarborough Rapid Transit line to a subway. They can’t go back now that their candidate, Mitzie Hunter, splashed the words “subway champion” on her campaign signs, can they?

Stranger things have happened. There’s still an out for the Libs – namely, if the feds fail to come up with a few million to support the project. There’s also some question about where City Council is going to find the extra half bil to cover additional costs.

But after the gas plant cancellations, which was also supposed to buy Liberal votes, it’s unlikely the Grits would want to chance going back on their word here, whatever the reason.

The task now is how to make it look like it’s the Libs delivering the promised rapid transit for Scarborough and not Rob Ford. That job’s gone to Transportation Minister Glen Murray, who took to the lawn at Queen’s Park the day before the by-elections to blast Ford for raising taxes (that’s a new one) and building zero subways.

Big deal

Were the by-election results a referendum on the Wynne government? Yes and no.

Undeniable fact: the Libs finished third in London West and Windsor, both seats they held.

One thing’s for sure: it’s the end of Wynne’s shouldering the blame for the gas plant scandal. She signalled as much on election night, condemning her predecessor’s handling of the affair as “heavy-handed” and “secretive.”

If anything, the results reveal divisions between the old McGuinty guard and the Wynne brain trust now running the party.

Windsor was a lost cause from the get-go, owing to Dwight Duncan’s resignation and local Sandra Pupatello’s loss to Wynne in the leadership. Credit the NDP, whose popular local councillor and former CBC television and radio personality Percy Hatfield carried the day.

In London West, local Libs – still stinging from the way their man, former MPP Chris Bentley, was treated during the gas plant affair – sat on their hands mostly.

But Ken Coran, the OSSTF president, also proved a disastrous pick. Coran got it from both sides – those pissed off at teachers’ work-to-rule campaign and those pissed off at the government for legislating teachers back to work.

Big surprise

That Peter Milczyn wasn’t able to make a better go of it against Holyday in Etobicoke-Lakeshore.

Besides the Ford factor, there was another shocker for Libs: what surprisingly little ground game Milczyn had for a guy who’s represented the area as city councillor for almost two decades. Some Libs are still muttering about that one.

Rob Ford wants to hold a by-election to replace Holyday on council. A costly election would seem to go against Ford’s penny-pinching instincts.

But it would afford another opportunity: to stay out on the hustings until the really big show in 2014.

Original Article
Source: NOW
Author:  Enzo Di Matteo