“It’s all about taking back the agenda,” said Dan Mader, a former chief of staff to several Conservative ministers. “Prorogation is a chance to really reset their agenda, and come out with a new agenda through a throne speech. They’re not looking to delay the House sitting significantly.”
It’s still too early to tell when Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) will prorogue Parliament and then come back with a throne speech, insiders told The Hill Times last week.
When he shuffled his Cabinet July 15, Mr. Harper signaled his government would return to the Hill with a renewed agenda this fall.
“I won’t speculate on the timing for the SFT [Speech from the Throne]. As the Prime Minister indicated in July, we are preparing a new agenda. We’ll keep you posted,” said Andrew MacDougall, communications director for the Prime Minister, last week.
Former PMO deputy chief of staff for issues management Keith Beardsley said the Prime Minister’s Office has been secretive about their plans so far.
“I don’t think at this point [the] PMO would have given any sign, if they were going to do it, when they’re going to do it. They’re keeping that close to themselves,” he said.
Members of Parliament are currently scheduled to come back to the House Sept. 16. One theory oft-cited by Ottawa pundits is to prorogue Parliament until after Thanksgiving and deliver the speech on Monday, Oct. 21.
Prorogation shuts down the session of Parliament and all legislation on the Order Paper dies. A new session starts with a throne speech, outlining the government’s priorities.
Mr. Mader said this theory makes sense, but ultimately it’s about when the government feels ready.
“The timing will just be based on when the government feels that they’re ready to go, and they have a speech that the Prime Minister is happy with, and they are happy with the major points of the agenda,” he said.
Currently ministers, political staff and bureaucrats are hard at work preparing their policy areas for the throne speech, he explained.
It’s too soon after a major Cabinet shuffle for the government to be prepared for an September Throne Speech, noted Mr. Beardsley.
“We’re only in August after a shuffle in July, so I don’t see where they would be at a position at this point to determine when they want to have prorogation. They may have a target date in mind but until all that policy work is done and then the speech-writing and so on, three or four weeks is simply not enough time to do it,” he explained. “They’re going to need a long time because any throne speech he comes out with will probably be the blueprint for 2015. There’s a lot of work that has to go into that and in the meantime you’ve got staff moving around in ministers offices which complicates the issue.”
There are eight rookie ministers and more than 20 ministers are new to their portfolios.
“This government performs better, and most governments do, when they have a directed game plan,” said Conservative insider Tim Powers.
“The throne speech will lay out a directed game plan, or score card—whatever you want to call it—that the PM will want to use as the matrix that Canadians evaluate him and his government on heading in to 2015,” said Mr. Powers, vice-chair of Summa Strategies.
Political communications specialist Gerry Nicholls said he would be surprised if the Prime Minister delivers his speech any time soon.
“But you never know, one of the things about Stephen Harper is that he can seem predictable, but every once in a while he’ll do something that surprises you,” he added.
Another possibility for prorogation and a throne Speech is the Prime Minister will wait until after the Conservative Convention in Calgary, which runs from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2.
This would also give the Prime Minister time to call four byelections to fill recently vacated seats in Manitoba, Quebec and Ontario. Election laws indicate the earliest possible date for all four byelections to be held at the same time is Oct. 21. He could then use the convention to introduce any newly-elected Conservative MPs and hint at his throne speech priorities.
“They could even use the convention speech as part of the effort to sell the throne speech or prep the country for a throne speech. There’s any number of ways they could do it, but they could link the two, there’s no doubt about it,” said Mr. Beardsley.
Mr. Harper has prorogued Parliament in two other non-election instances. The first was at the beginning of the global economic crisis in December 2008 when the opposition parties attempted to form a coalition government. The House was prorogued until the end of January 2009. In December of 2009, during the Afghan detainees affair, Mr. Harper again asked the Governor General for permission to prorogue. Parliament was recessed until March 2010.
Each instance sparked public outcry that Mr. Harper was avoiding debate. The current plans for prorogation are more of a routine break in Parliament mid-term.
For the past six months, the Conservatives have been dealing with the Senate expenses scandal. While the summer break has given the government a break from opposition inquiries in Question Period, Mr. Mader said the government wouldn’t seek to extend it with prorogation.
“One thing that this government really needs to do is take back the agenda,” he said.
“Probably the Priorities and Planning Cabinet committee would have had some discussions over the last few months about a high-level agenda and priorities for the next session. The Prime Minister then would be very involved in shaping that agenda and communicating to the ministers who have big roles in it what he’s looking for from them, and they’ll be putting that together with their departments and feeding that into the process of what then goes into the speech,” he explained.
As ministers work with their departments, it’s the job of the Prime Minister’s Office’s strategic communications team to oversee the work and bring it together, he added.
The speech itself will focus on jobs and economic growth as usual, said Mr. Mader.
“They’ve been very clear about that,” he said.
The concern for a government that has been in power for so long is that it will shy away from “making tough decisions,” he said.
“They need to take some bold policy positions and in that way set the agenda and have the opposition play on their turf,” he added.
They could do this by moving forward on new initiatives outlined in the 2013 budget, such as the new Canada Jobs Grant, he noted.
“If they’re ready to go with some legislation on that, that could be part of the agenda,” he said.
The Speech from the Throne needs to “grab the population’s imagination and vision” said Mr. Beardsley.
“Anything like this would be the so well-kept, to a very small group of people. It wouldn’t be widely talked about, even within PMO … so I don’t expect anything to leak out,” he added.
Canadians are primed for Senate reform, Mr. Beardsley noted, though both he and Mr. Powers said the government would likely have to wait for a decision by the Supreme Court on its reference questions before going forward.
International trade and energy, two other touchstone subjects for the Conservatives, will also likely be in the throne speech, said Mr. Powers.
It’s important that the government seize the reins again, said Mr. Mader.
“It’s two years until the next election. A government can’t coast for two years—it needs to show Canadians that it is not getting tired, that it has an agenda,” he said.
Original Article
Source: hilltimes.com
Author: JESSICA BRUNO, LAURA RYCKEWAERT
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