Numerous polls have shown that a majority of Americans assign a larger share of blame for the shutdown to congressional Republicans, who tried to tie government funding provisions to defunding the Affordable Care Act. Even prominent Republicans like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have criticized their colleagues in the House for damaging the GOP's image.
Fifty-four percent of Americans now oppose Republican control of the House, according to a CNN-ORC poll released on Monday. And a series of polls commissioned by progressive advocacy group Moveon.org and conducted by Public Policy Polling released in batches over the last several days indicate Democrats may have enough momentum to take back the House.
Democrats only need to lock up 17 additional seats in the November 2014 midterm elections to secure a House majority. The new polls show the recent government shutdown may cause as many as 37 Republicans to lose their House seats next year.
PPP pollsters surveyed 61 Republican-held congressional districts around the country from Oct. 1 through Oct. 18. They concluded that “Democrats not only have an opportunity to take back the House of Representatives next year, but that they could win a sizable majority if voter anger over the shutdown carries into 2014."
According to a PPP memo released on Monday:
Republicans will likely find this third round of surveys to be the most alarming yet, given that the new results show substantial Republican vulnerability in many districts that were not even supposed to be close. Incumbent Republicans trail generic Democrats in 15 of the 25 districts we most recently surveyed. This means generic Democrats lead in 37 of 61 districts polled since the beginning of the government shutdown.Let's meet the 37 Republicans, including some longtime incumbents, who could lose their seats to Democrats in the 2014 midterm elections.
1. California -- District 25: Rep. Howard "Buck" McKeon
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+3
McKeon represents California's conservative 25th congressional district, which covers parts of Los Angeles County and Ventura County, including Santa Clarita, Simi Valley, Palmdale, Lancaster and the northern part of the San Fernando Valley. McKeon has served as the 25th district’s representative since 1993.
With rumors of retirement, the 75-year-old chairman of the House Armed Services Committee has not officially announced his reelection plans.
Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 49.7 percent of votes, though Barack Obama secured the district in 2008 with 49 percent of votes.
2. California -- District 39: Rep. Edward Royce
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Royce has represented California's 39th congressional district, and previously the 40th, since 1993. The district covers northern Orange County, including parts of Fullerton, Brea, Buena Park, Anaheim Hills, Placentia, Yorba Linda, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills, Hacienda Heights and Rowland Heights. In 2013, Royce became the chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Five of the six last representatives for California's 39th district have been Republicans.
Romney won the district with 50.8 percent of votes in 2012. McCain secured the district in 2008 with 49 percent of votes.
3. California -- District 49: Rep. Darrell Issa
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+4
Issa -- the second-richest member of congress -- has served as the representative for California's 49th congressional district since 2001. The district, which covers the northern coastal areas of San Diego County as well as a small southern portion of Orange County, has voted largely in favor of Republican representatives on local and national levels for more than the last decade -- although Democrats Lynn Schenk and Susan Davis were able to break into the House seat in 1993 and 2001, respectively.
Romney won the district with 52.4 percent of votes in 2012, but Barack Obama won 49 percent of votes in 2008, beating out McCain by 1 percent.
4. Colorado -- District 3: Rep. Scott Tipton
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+4
Colorado’s third congressional district, located in western and south-central Colorado, has been represented by Tipton since 2010, after he defeating three-term incumbent Democrat John Salazar. Tipton's relatively short stint in office has already been marred by potential ethics violations. Coupled with the district’s positive voting record toward Democratic representatives -- excluding national elections -- a general Democratic contender stands a strong chance of securing the seat in 2014.
Romney won 51.8 percent of Tipton's district in 2012.
5. Florida -- District 7: Rep. John L. Mica
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Mica has represented Florida’s seventh congressional district since 1993. In recent years, a population increase in has boosted the region’s economy, pushing economic stability to the top of the local agenda -- perhaps explaining the district's current hesitation to reelect a Republican whose party has largely been blamed for the government shutdown’s costly economic consequences.
Although Republicans have won the district's presidential vote since 1992, with Romney securing 51.8 percent of votes in 2012, the district's significant proportion of independent voters may contribute to a turn toward Democrats.
6. Florida -- District 15: Rep. Dennis Ross
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+8
Although Ross has only served as a House Republican since 2011, his constituents may be ready for change. Formerly the 12th and reassigned in 2013 as Florida’s 15th, Ross’s right-leaning district encompasses the northern parts of Hillsborough County and Polk County, including many of Tampa’s eastern suburbs.
Republicans have dominated the district’s congressional politics since 1995. In 2012, Romney won 53.3 percent of the district's votes.
7. Florida -- District 25: Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+6
Since 2003, Diaz-Balart has represented Florida’s 25th district, which spans west of Miami to the northern border of the Everglades, including communities east of Naples and Marco Island.
Republicans have controlled the district for the last decade, and in the 2012 presidential election Romney won 50.8 percent of votes.
8. Florida -- District 27: Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
As the most senior Republican woman in the U.S. House and the first Hispanic woman elected to congress, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen has represented the newly designated 27th district of Florida since January of 2013, after serving the 18th district for 24 years.
Despite the current national impulse to replace obstructionist House Republicans, Ros-Lehtinen’s more centrist record may make replacing her tougher to beat than the average career Republican.
Obama secured 53.5 percent of the Republican-held district in 2012.
9. Illinois -- District 6: Rep. Peter Roskam
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Roskam has represented Illinois's sixth congressional district since 2007. He is also serving as Chief Deputy Whip in the 112th Congress. Among other areas, Illinois’s sixth district covers parts of Cook, DuPage, Lake, Kane and McHenry counties.
Democrats already hold 12 of the 18 congressional seats from Illinois. If a Democrat replaces Roskam in 2014, it will be the first time in 40 years that the region's seat is represented by a Democrat.
Although Obama won the district in 2008 with 51.3 percent of votes, Romney won 53.3 percent of the district's votes in 2012.
10. Illinois -- District 16: Rep. Adam Kinzinger
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+4
Thirty-five-year-old Kinzinger replaced Democrat Debbie Halvorson in the 11th district of Illinois in November of 2010. After redistricting, Kinzinger ran in the newly redrawn 16th congressional district, where he defeated Democrat Wanda Rohl.
In the upcoming 2014 election, Kinzinger will face Democratic challenger Randall Olsen. Although Olsen has never run for political office, perhaps he’s just the kind of generic Democratic challenger to win the traditionally red district.
In 2012, Romney secured the district with 52.9 percent of votes. Obama won with 50 percent of the vote in 2008.
11. Michigan -- District 3: Rep. Justin Amash
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Two-term incumbent Amash -- the second-youngest sitting U.S. representative -- has served Michigan’s third district in the House since 2011.
Although Amash does not currently face any Democratic challengers, Obama managed to win his conservative district with 49.7 percent of votes in 2008. Romney secured a larger share, 53.1 percent, in 2012.
12. Michigan -- District 4: Rep. Dave Camp
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+4
Camp, who is chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means, has represented Michigan’s fourth congressional district since 1993. A consistently red bloc that covers Michigan’s central lower peninsula, the district has voted largely in favor of Republican representatives for decades.
No Democrats have yet announced 2014 campaigns challenging Camp.
Romney beat out Obama in 2012 with 53.5 percent of votes. Obama won the majority of votes over McCain in 2008 with 49.6 percent.
13. Michigan -- District 6: Rep. Fred Upton
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+1
Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce Fred Upton has represented the sixth congressional district in southwest Michigan since 1993. Upton is being challenged in the Republican primary by registered nurse Jim Bussler. Western Michigan University political science professor Dr. Paul Clements is running for the Democratic nomination.
Although the district’s congressional voting record has favored Republicans, Obama won in the presidential race with 53 percent of the vote in 2008. Romney won the district in 2012 with 50.2 percent of votes.
14. Michigan -- District 8: Rep. Mike Rogers
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
Seven-term House member and chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Mike Rogers has served as Michigan’s eighth congressional district representative since 2001. His district encompasses southern Michigan and southeast Michigan, including Clinton, Ingham and Livingston counties.
Declining a bid for the U.S. Senate, Rogers will most likely seek reelection in 2014.
Although Romney won the district in 2012 with 51.1 percent of votes, Obama secured a majority in 2008 with 52 percent of votes.
15. New Jersey -- District 2: Rep. Frank LoBiondo
Cook Partisan Voting Index: D+1
Since 1995, Rep. LoBiondo has represented New Jersey’s largest congressional district, at the southern end of the state. LoBiondio’s left-leaning district includes all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem Counties and parts of Camden, Gloucester, Burlington and Ocean Counties.
One potential 2014 Democratic challenger is William Hughes, Jr., son of LoBiondo's congressional predecessor, Democrat Bill Hughes.
Obama secured 53.5 percent of LoBiondo's district in the 2012 presidential elections and 53.2 percent in 2008.
16. New Jersey -- District 3: Rep. Jon Runyan
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
A former NFL football player, Runyan has represented New Jersey’s third congressional district since 2011. The district’s voting record has indicated an almost even split between Democrats and Republicans over the last several years, with three of the last five representatives being Democrats.
Obama won 51.8 percent of the district in 2012 after winning 51.1 percent of votes in 2008.
17. New Jersey -- District 5: Rep. Scott Garrett
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Representing northwestern New Jersey, Garrett has served as the fifth district’s representative since 2003.
The L-shaped district, which covers New Jersey’s rural northern and western regions, is one of the most conservative in the Northeast, consistently electing Republican lawmakers.
First-time office-seeker and Democrat Roy Cho is challenging Garrett next November. Maybe his endorsement by rapper Ghostface Killah will win the conservative district over.
Romney won 51 percent of votes in 2012, and McCain secured 50.5 percent of the district's votes in 2008.
18. New Jersey -- District 7: Rep. Leonard Lance
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+6
Lance has held New Jersey’s reliably Republican seventh district seat since 2009. In a more conservative bloc of New Jersey, Republicans have maintained control over the seventh district since the early '80s.
Romney won the district in 2012 with 52.5 percent of votes. In 2008, McCain won 51.6 percent of the conservative district's votes.
19. New Jersey -- District 11: Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Frelinghuysen has served as the representative for New Jersey's right-leaning 11th district since 1995. The district is centered in Morris County, where prior to redistricting in the 1980s, Democrats held the seat for over 40 years.
Democrat Mark Dunec is challenging Frelinghuysen for the seat.
Romney gained 52.4 percent of the district's votes in 2012, after McCain won the district with 52.1 percent of votes in 2008.
20. New York -- District 2: Rep. Peter King
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+1
King represents New York's second congressional district, which runs along the South Shore of Long Island and includes southwestern Suffolk County and part of southeastern Nassau County.
King was the first Republican elected to the district in over a decade. He has already indicated he plans to run in the 2016 presidential election.
Obama won the district in both 2012 and 2008, with 51.6 percent and 51 percent of votes, respectively.
21. New York -- District 22: Rep. Richard Hanna
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+3
After two years as the 24th district’s representative, Hanna now represents the state's 22nd district, a predominantly Republican-leaning district located in central New York.
McCain and Obama tied in 2008, each winning 49 percent of the district's votes. Romney won the district in 2012 with 49.2 percent of votes.
22. Ohio -- District 1: Rep. Steven Chabot
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+6
Chabot has represented Ohio’s right-leaning first congressional district since 2011, beating out Democrat Jeff Sinnard. He previously represented the district from 1995 to 2009, but temporarily lost the seat to Democrat Steve Driehaus before regaining it in 2010.
Ohio’s first congressional district includes parts of Cincinnati and borders Indiana and Kentucky.
Romney won a majority of votes in 2012 with 52.4 percent. In 2008, McCain secured 51.8 percent of votes over Obama.
23. Ohio -- District 10: Rep. Michael Turner
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
Turner has represented Ohio’s 10th congressional district, which covers most of Dayton, since January 2013. Prior to Turner, the district was represented by liberal Democrat Dennis Kucinich from 1997 to 2013. However, re-districting in 2010 resulted in new geographic boundaries, and consequently the 10th District now encompasses different geographical regions, including Montgomery, Greene and Fayette counties, than those Kucinich represented, which included Cleveland.
With 50.1 percent of votes, Romney won the 10th district in 2012. Obama and McCain, however, tied with 49.3 percent of votes each in 2008.
24. Ohio -- District 15: Rep. Steven Stivers
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+6
A colonel in the Ohio Army National Guard, Stivers has represented Ohio’s 15th congressional district since 2011. The district, which covers southern portions of Columbus, was represented by Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy before Stivers defeated her in 2010.
Democrat Scott Wharton will be challenging Stivers in 2014.
In 2012, Romney won 51.9 percent of votes in Stiver's district. McCain secured 52.2 percent of votes in 2008.
25. Ohio -- District 16: Rep. James B. Renacci
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
James Renacci, entrepreneur and former mayor of Wadsworth, Ohio, has represented the state's 16th congressional district since 2011. He beat Democratic incumbent John Boccieri in 2010.
The Republican-leaning district, which stretches from Lake Erie to Wooster, voted for Romney in 2012 with 53.4 percent of votes. In 2008, McCain won the district with 51.3 percent of votes.
26. Pennsylvania -- District 6: Rep. Jim Gerlach
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+1
Redistricting, met with allegations of gerrymandering, made Gerlach the first Republican to represent the district since 1959. He has held the seat since 2003. Before redistricting, the Cook Partisan Voting Index rated the district as D+4; after re-drawing the boundaries, it turned R+1.
The now Republican-leaning district includes communities north and west of Philadelphia.
Although Gerlach's district voted for Romney in 2012 by 50.6 percent, in 2008, Obama won the sixth district with 53 percent of votes.
27. Pennsylvania -- District 15: Rep. Charlie Dent
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
Dent has represented Pennsylvania’s 15th congressional district, comprising suburbs east of Harrisburg and Allentown along the New Jersey border, since 2005.
Although neither Democrats nor Republicans have been able to win the district consistently, Republicans have carried the district since 1999.
In 2012, Romney won the district with 50.8 percent of votes, while Obama secured the region with 52.1 percent in 2008.
28. Pennsylvania -- District 16: Rep. Joe Pitts
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+6
Pitts has represented the consistently conservative 16th district since 1977. The district encompasses much of Amish country and Philadelphia’s southwestern suburbs. Republicans have held the congressional seat for more than 50 years.
Romney won the district in 2012 with 52.4 percent of the vote, after Obama was able to win the conservative district in 2008 with 50.1 percent.
29. Virginia -- District 1: Rep. Robert Wittman
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+8
Wittman has served as Virginia first district representative since 2007. A Republican has held the district’s congressional seat since 1977. Located in eastern Virginia, the district has also consistently voted for Republican presidential candidates for decades.
Romney won the district over in 2012 with 53 percent of votes, and McCain secured the region in 2008 with 52.3 percent.
30. Virginia -- District 4: Rep. Randy Forbes
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+4
Chairman of the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee on the House Armed Services Committee, Forbes has represented Virginia’s fourth district since 2001.
Mitt Romney won the district with 50.1 percent of votes in 2012. In 2008, John McCain secured 50.4 percent of the district's votes.
31. Virginia -- District 5: Rep. Robert Hurt
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Hurt has represented Virginia’s fifth and largest congressional district since 2011. Although the district has consistently voted in favor of Republican presidential candidates for more than the last decade, Democrat Thomas Perriello occupied the congressional seat from 2009 to 2011.
Romney won 50.1 percent of Hurt's district in 2012 after McCain gained 50.4 percent of the votes in 2008.
32. Virginia -- District 10: Rep. Frank Wolf
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
Wolf has represented Virginia’s 10th district since his election to the seat in 1981. The district includes portions of Clarke, Fairfax and Warren, among other counties. Prior to Wolf, Democrat Joseph Fisher occupied the seat for six years.
Romney narrowly defeated Obama in 2012 with 49.9 percent of the district's votes, after Obama won the district in 2008 with 51 percent of votes.
33. Washington -- District 3: Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
Herrera Beutler has represented Washington’s third district since 2011. Her district covers the southernmost part of western Washington, from Olympia south to the Columbia River, and is competitive political ground for both parties.
Romney won the district in 2012 with 49.6 percent of votes, whereas Obama won in 2008 with 50.9 percent of the district's votes.
34. Washington -- District 8: Rep. Dave Reichert
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
Reichert has served Washington's eighth congressional district -- which has always elected a Republican to the district’s seat -- since 2005.
Obama won the district in both 2012 and 2008, with 49.7 percent and 51.5 percent of votes, respectively.
35. Wisconsin -- District 1: Rep. Paul Ryan
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+3
Paul Ryan -- Romney’s running-mate in 2012 -- currently holds Wisconsin’s first congressional district seat. The swing district, which lies in southeastern Wisconsin, has oscillated between Republican and Democratic presidential votes over the last several years, lending Romney a larger share of votes in 2012.
Democrat Amar Kaleka, son of a slain Sikh leader, plans to challenge Ryan in 2014. In addition to Kaleka, Democrat Rob Zerban -- who lost to Ryan in 2012 -- is also considering another run in 2014.
Romney won his running-mate's district in 2012 with 51.6 percent of votes. Obama won in 2008 with 50.8 percent.
36. Wisconsin -- District 6: Rep. Tom Petri
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5
Tom Petri has represented Wisconsin’s sixth congressional district, located in eastern Wisconsin, since 1979, when he won the seat in a special election.
Although a Republican has occupied the congressional seat for almost 50 years, Obama was able to win the district with 49.4 percent of votes in 2008. Romney won the district in 2012 with 53.1 percent of votes.
37. Wisconsin -- District 8: Rep. Reid Ribble
Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+2
A swing district, Wisconsin’s eighth congressional district -- which covers northeastern Wisconsin, including Green Bay and Appleton -- has been represented by Ribble since 2011.
Romney won the district over Obama in 2012 with 51.3 percent of votes. Obama was able to win the region in 2008 with 53.7 percent of votes.
Original Article
Source: huffingtonpost.com
Author: Shadee Ashtari
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