Security has risen dramatically as a concern among Canadians since October, with the threat of ISIS in Iraq and the attacks against two soldiers in October placing it among the top issues for voters. The shift in voters’ concerns has coincided with a reversal of fortunes in the polls for the Conservatives, who had been trailing the Liberals for months and are now neck-and-neck.
Pollster Frank Graves of EKOS said terrorism and security are “inflamed issues” right now.
“Even though they have yet to eclipse the economy as the most important issue, they are by far the issue which explains what have been dramatic shifts in the political landscape over the last four months,” he said in an interview.
The economy remains the top concern but it isn’t “sorting people on a partisan basis right now in any clear fashion” the way security is, Mr. Graves said.
The Conservatives have taken note, shifting their strategy and sharpening their tone on terrorism and security. To introduce new anti-terror Bill C-51, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) delivered a campaign-style speech in Richmond Hill, Ont., on Jan. 30 that featured strong language on threats to Canada’s security.
“Over the last few years, a great evil has been descending upon our world, an evil which has been growing more and more powerful: violent jihadism,” he said before the backdrop of an enormous Canadian flag.
“Jihadi terrorism as it is evolving is one of the most dangerous enemies our world has ever faced,” he continued, saying jihadists “have declared war on Canada,” pointing to separate attacks in October in Saint-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que. and at the National War Memorial that killed two Canadian soldiers.
The speech came two days after the PMO released a video as part of its 24/Seven series, this one called “Canada Stands Strong and Free.” Set to dramatic music, the video features voice-overs of different speeches the Prime Minister has made on national security with footage of soldiers, fighter jets, Navy ships, the National War Memorial and former sergeant-at-arms Kevin Vickers, who is credited with shooting gunman Michael Zehaf-Bibeau in the Centre Block on Oct. 22.
In the video, as soldiers lay wreaths at the memorial to honour murdered Cpl. Nathan Cirillo, Mr. Harper says ISIS has “specifically targeted Canada and Canadians, urging supporters to attack, quote, disbelieving Canadians in any manner, vowing that we should not feel secure even in our homes.”
Mr. Graves raised the question of whether the threat level Canadians feel over security and terrorism could be sustained all the way to an October election. The Conservatives’ rhetoric, he said, could be an attempt to bait the opposition into opposing the new legislation and using it as a premise to go to the polls this spring.
“Looking at some of the video materials and some of the language, that might work in the short term. I would think there’s maybe a bit of overreach going on here and this will come back and look, frankly, foolish to a lot of Canadians once they get a chance to reflect on it,” he said. “That’s why time is such a critical factor here. This language of war, that you’re not safe in your home—it’s so hyperbolic that it’s comical but it’s nonetheless been extremely effective to this point in time.”
Most Canadians aren’t paying attention to issues the way they will be during an election campaign, he said, and the Conservatives’ messaging likely won’t be as powerful when people have a chance to reflect on it before voting.
“I think it’s more of an emotional response going on at this stage than a moral response, and that works more in the government’s favour. They’re seen as actually doing something,” he said.
But he also thinks more time will allow Canadians’ views on the balance between privacy and security return to more typical levels.
The opposition, with the exception of Green Party Leader Elizabeth May (Saanich-Gulf Islands, B.C.) who has been highly critical of Bill C-51, hasn’t taken the bait for fear of being stuck with the “soft on terror” label. The Liberals and the NDP have so far limited their criticism to the lack of Parliamentary oversight of security agencies, and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) last week said his party would support the bill even without amendments.
“If Conservatives are hoping to use it as a wedge, the other parties are trying not to let that happen. They’re trying to just neutralize this issue because they don’t want the election to be about security and safety,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said in an interview. “Maybe the government realizes the only way they can create that wedge is through rhetoric and through positioning the opposition as somehow weak on that issue even though they may support a lot of the measures.”
Nanos Research president and CEO Nik Nanos said the Conservatives’ tone is of a pro-active government addressing Canadians’ anxiety over a potential future terrorist attack. About two-thirds of Canadians believe Canada is at war with terrorist groups, he said, and there’s also a strong belief that the justice system isn’t equipped to handle current threats.
“They’re tapping into emotion and concern that’s out there in the public domain,” he said in an interview.
“There’s a direct correlation between Canadians’ concern about terror and security and positive impressions of the Prime Minister—the greater the focus on terrorism and security, it seems to benefit the personal brand of Stephen Harper at this particular point in time,” he said.
Only about six or seven per cent of Canadians put security and terrorism as a top issue in the summer, Mr. Coletto said, but that number has risen to 18 per cent. It’s a significant increase but “still nowhere near the anxiety around the economy or even concern for health care or long term care,” he said.
His firm’s polling after the attacks in October showed that only one-third of Canadians said they felt less safe.
The government is likely trying “to ratchet it up a little bit,” he said.
“It’s not as if Canadians across the country are somehow incredibly afraid now, more than they were before what happened in October,” Mr. Coletto said. “It remains to be seen whether the tone [the government is] using is going to be effective in terms of aligning with how people feel.”
An EKOS poll for iPolitics conducted between Jan. 28 and Feb. 3 showed the Conservatives at 35 per cent nationally, riding increased security concerns to a three-point lead over the Liberals, a 15-point shift since October. An Abacus poll from last week showed the Conservatives and Liberals in a dead heat, at 33 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively.
“Frankly the government is benefiting from horrible events, but propitious politically for them,” Mr. Graves said. “They continue to sustain this concern with fear and security, which is definitely evident in the public.”
Karim Karim, a professor in Carleton University’s School of Journalism and Communication and director of the Carleton Centre for the Study of Islam, said the government’s tone could actually be “counterproductive” in dealing with radicalization.
“What I’m really concerned about is that, as we head into an election, if this is not rectified, if this is the line that the Conservative Party continues to hold, you can imagine that there will be talking points going out to all the Tory candidates across the country,” he said in an interview. “They’ll be using the same kind of tone and same kind of language, which really does not serve the larger purpose in terms of looking for ways in which we can bring about peace.”
The National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM) and the Canadian Muslim Lawyers’ Association (CMLA) expressed concern in a statement last week about Mr. Harper’s comments in response to a question at the Richmond Hill event.
When he was asked how to distinguish between teens messing around in a basement and someone who is radicalized, Mr. Harper said: “It doesn’t matter what the age of the person is, or whether they’re in a basement, or whether they’re in a mosque or somewhere else.”
In a Feb. 2 statement, the organizations said Muslims were “deeply troubled” by Mr. Harper’s comments.
“The words used by our elected leaders have a profound impact on public perceptions. At a time when Canadian Muslims have faced hateful attacks and vandalism against their places of worship, the Prime Minister’s remarks have regrettably cast an unjust shadow of suspicion on Canadian Muslim communities and have distorted the nature of security threats,” they said.
NDP Leader Tom Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) told reporters the groups were right to demand an apology from Mr. Harper, calling the Prime Minister’s comments “irresponsible” and a form of “Islamophobia.”
The Conservatives’ messaging on security is winning back much of the constituency that gave them their majority government in 2011, Mr. Graves said, most notably seniors who are “squarely back” in the Tory camp after having migrated to the Liberals.
Mr. Nanos said security and terrorism is now tied with health care as the second most important issue in his polling, behind jobs and the economy.
The firm’s economic polling with Bloomberg last week, the first full one since the Bank of Canada’s rate cut on Jan. 21, showed a sharp spike in the number of Canadians who think the economy will weaken in the next six months: up to 41.5 per cent from 36.1 per cent the week before, making it highest number since the 2009 recession. The gap between the pessimists and optimists (only 16.2 per cent said the economy would strengthen in the next six months), at 25.3 per cent, was also the widest since the recession.
“There’s only so much room in the news, so by being proactive on non-fiscal and economic issues it squeezes out some of the potential turbulence that it looks like the Canadian economy is going to chase,” Mr. Nanos said.
The rising anxiety regarding security and the economy can all be aligned in the Conservative strategy, Mr. Coletto said, to make the point that the steady leadership offered by the incumbent is needed to manage an unstable geopolitical and economic climate.
Original Article
Source: hilltimes.com/
Author: Mark Burgess
No comments:
Post a Comment