I been too long, I’m glad to be back
While I’m not sure AC/DC would approve, their lyrics aptly describe the Conservatives’ reaction to the unanticipated surplus of $1.9 billion announced for fiscal 2014-2015. The country’s finances are out of the red for the time being; the Tories figure their electoral prospects ought to be as well.
“This is incredibly good news. Look, in spite of all the problems of the world, this country has a balanced budget, has had it all along and the other parties are going to have to explain why they think now would be a good time to throw us into deficit,” Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on the campaign trail in Kamloops, B.C.
This is the latest good news for the Tories out of the Finance department, following its report in late August of a $5 billion surplus for the second quarter of 2015. While about 40 per cent of that gain came from the government’s one-time sale of General Motors shares, the Conservatives still used it to heap praise on their own fiscal management skills — even as the opposition parties accused them of balancing the books by “underspending” in areas such as Veterans Affairs, Aboriginal Affairs and seniors.
Indeed, a scathing report released in late 2014 showed that while vets were petitioning Ottawa for more benefits, Veterans Affairs Canada had actually returned $1.13 billion to the federal treasury in unspent funds since the Conservatives came to power in 2006. One third of that amount had been sent back between 2011 and 2013. Public Accounts figures further revealed that over the same period, the government as a whole allowed more than $18 billion in budgeted funding to lapse. This helped pull Ottawa out of the red — which in turn allowed the Tories to keep key promises that were contingent on balancing the books by 2015, such as income-splitting for families.
Nevertheless, the Tories likely will assume that the balanced budget news will give them a boost, since the economy and personal economic anxiety remain the top issues for voters. But how voters absorb the news on the surplus will likely depend on the state of their personal finances — whether they consider themselves “haves” or “have nots”.
According to the latest Angus Reid survey, 31 per cent of Canadians consider themselves “haves”, 39 per cent “have nots” and 30 per cent “really can’t say.” A further breakdown of these groups into “older haves”, “insecure haves”, “indebted have-nots” and “younger have-nots” reveals stark divisions when it comes to four statements: ‘he’ll inspire confidence in investors at home and abroad’, ‘he’ll work closely with the provinces to better manage the economy’, ‘he is too risky a choice when it comes to the economy’ and ‘he can be trusted on economic issues’.
The results show that “older haves” are the ones who respect Harper the most. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is very strongly positioned with both “indebted” and “younger” have-nots. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau runs second in both camps. Overall, Mulcair emerges with the best score on the four questions.
If one overlays these findings with the parties’ promises, particularly on balancing future budgets, an interesting picture emerges. The Conservative base, which is represented more by the “older haves”, will probably react positively to the news of a surplus, and to Tory promises to deliver more of them in the future, however they’re achieved.
But it’s not clear whether supporters of other parties will be swayed, since most of them seem to favour a combination of balanced budgets and spending — which is what the NDP is promising to deliver. Claims that the Tories’ surplus is “phony” because it was achieved through holding back money budgeted for spending priorities may stick with that group. Meanwhile, the Liberals — the only party promising to deliver deficits — are still a second choice for those voters.
In other words, as long as orange is the new black, and some Canadians don’t mind being in the red, the Tories may still end up singing the blues.
Original Article
Source: ipolitics.ca/
Author: Tasha Kheiriddin
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