The worst critic he’d ever seen in Parliament, he sniffed. A dilettante. A poseur. A leader so inept he would drive disaffected Liberals to the dreaded New Democrats.
If Trudeau was so weak, I asked, why had the Conservatives launched attack ads the day after he was chosen? “We had to define him,” he said.
But if Trudeau was this shallow, how was he a threat? Wouldn’t he collapse? From the minister, a shrug.
It seems the Conservatives were always more afraid of Trudeau than they would admit, whatever their contempt. Now we know why.
Justin Trudeau is the story of this campaign. He has defied expectations and confounded critics. He has emerged from five debates standing, sometimes glowing. He has drawn flattering profiles in the media. Strategically, he has outflanked the New Democrats and undercut the Conservatives. Tactically, his campaign has been innovative in staging events (using two airplanes) and making well-timed announcements.
It is possible, if unlikely, that Trudeau will win the most seats and form a government on Oct. 19. But even if he doesn’t, he has won the campaign.
Of the three leaders, he is the only one who wins if he loses. Silver is gold to him. It’s why, given the post-election fluidity, Trudeau may be the only one standing.
In a three-way horserace, you win, place or show. Winning for Trudeau would mean a minority or majority government. Placing would mean coming in second, which, given the fragility of a centre-right minority government in a Parliament dominated by the centre-left, could mean first.
But even if the Conservatives return with a majority, second place would make the Liberals the official Opposition, giving them stature and money. In that event, Trudeau would have saved the party that Michael Ignatieff took down in 2011.
Showing would be coming third, which is where the Liberals are now. That would be disastrous, but it is unlikely.
Two and a half years ago, Trudeau’s party was declared dead. The Liberals were a rump in Parliament – smaller than they were in 1958, 1984 and 2008.
There was talk of merging with the NDP. Jean Chrétien and Ed Broadbent pushed the idea. (Expect them to broker a Liberal-NDP coalition if the Conservatives win a minority).
Trudeau and his advisors have put the party back in the game. They recruited new members, adopted new technology, consulted American electoral gurus and raised money. They did it their way: they never had a real policy conference. They listened to only some voices, usually under 50. They misplayed the anti-terrorism bill and courted the empty Eve Adams.
But they recruited a team of fine candidates, including Terry Beech in Vancouver, Jim Carr in Winnipeg, Adam Vaughan and Bill Morneau in Toronto, Jane Philpott in Markham, Catherine McKenna and Andrew Leslie in Ottawa, Matt DeCourcey in Fredericton, François-Philippe Champagne in Quebec. All elevate our public life.
And now they stand ready to elect 100 or more MPs, representing every province in Canada, including Alberta. Extraordinary.
Really, though, this has been about Justin Trudeau. So successfully has he presented himself – whatever his weaknesses – he has inoculated himself against the “not ready” ads and even turned them to his advantage, as he has the long campaign designed to undo him.
With Trudeau, temperament trumps intellect. He has shown stamina, guts and imagination. Whatever his lack of experience, we are electing a prime minister, not a president, in a system of cabinet government. After a decade of nastiness, he exudes generosity. In embracing an ambitious Canada, he has made himself the agent of change.
Now, with the election 12 days away, Trudeau’s Liberals are tied with the Conservatives, or ahead, or slightly behind. What is clear is that the progressive vote has broken, finally, for his party.
If the Conservatives come in first and the Liberals second, there will be intense pressure on the left for a coalition with the New Democrats. Disdainful of Trudeau, expect Tom Mulcair to resign as leader, succeeded by Nathan Cullen, who will lead the NDP into such a coalition, as the junior partner.
When the government is defeated, expect Stephen Harper to resign, too. And Justin Trudeau, the unlikely heir, will become prime minister of Canada.
Original Article
Source: ottawacitizen.com/
Author: ANDREW COHEN
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