The poll, conducted by the firm John Zogby Strategies and commissioned by the American Values 2024 PAC, comes amid growing speculation — fueled by Kennedy himself — that he will leave the Democratic Party in the upcoming weeks.
But what the PAC found in its survey may be as notable as the tea leaves around a switch itself: Kennedy, as an Independent, would pull more support away from Republican Donald Trump than Democrat Joe Biden, according to the findings.
All told, the poll shows that in a general election between Trump, Biden and a generic “independent candidate,” the result is Trump at 40 percent, Bident at 38 percent and the independent candidate at 17 percent. In a matchup between Trump, Biden and “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” as the independent candidate, the result is Trump and Bide tied at 38 percent with Kennedy at 19 percent. The survey did not include Green Party candidate Cornel West.
Such numbers are far more bullish on Kennedy’s prospects than independent polls. The authors, however, argue that they effectively undermine Democratic gripes that Kennedy would play the role of a spoiler by helping Trump win “The opposite is true. Kennedy is taking more votes from Trump than from Biden,” reads a press release announcing the poll numbers, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO.
Kennedy is not yet a third-party candidate. But he has teased a big announcement on Oct. 9 in Philadelphia and Mediaite has reported that he is planning an Independent bid — a report his campaign has not yet confirmed.
To date, he has run as a Democrat, garnering a polling average of about 14 percent in the primary race against Biden and progressive author Marianne Williamson, according to RealClearPolitics.
The campaign, run by former congressman Dennis Kucinich, has expanded its field operation with offices in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as a headquarters in New Jersey that opened last week. Kennedy also ramped up his campaign trail schedule this summer with multiple trips to not only South Carolina and New Hampshire, but also Georgia, California and Texas.
American Values 2024 is also increasing its presence with, what it calls, a “Kennedy caravan” — a classic campaign bus that it hopes will attract supporting cars to follow. So far it’s been used to protest outside the last Democratic National Committee meeting in Washington and made multiple stops at universities in South Carolina. The Super PAC has also paid for advertising in South Carolina and New Hampshire with both billboards and newspaper ads.
Both the campaign and super PAC supporting Kennedy have also found fundraising successes. Earlier this month, an Eric Clapton rock concert raised more than $2 million that was split between the campaign and the PAC. This will add to the $6 million American Values 2024 collected in July alone, most of it coming in on the day that Kennedy testified on censorship before the House Judiciary Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government.
American Values 2024’s poll surveyed 1,008 US likely general election voters and had a 3.2 percent margin of error. PAC co-founder Tony Lyons told POLITICO that he felt like the most recent polling shows that if Kennedy ran as an independent the general election would become a three-way race.
Lyons could not confirm whether Kennedy will quit the Democratic primary in favor of an independent run, but he saw an opportunity to do so given the advantages of Biden’s incumbency (there will not be primary debates, for example).
“Because that’s being denied, on behalf of the super PAC, I can say, any outcome that allows people to be heard and that allows people to actually cast a vote for a candidate that they’ve decided on themselves is a good thing,” Lyons said in an interview last Friday.
Source: politico
Author: Brittany Gibson
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